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Risk warning: the prosperity of the real estate market has declined; Risk of exchange rate fluctuation; Risk of raw material price fluctuation; Sales of new products fell short of expectations.Risk warning: the prosperity of the real estate market has declined; Risk of exchange rate fluctuation; Risk of raw material price fluctuation; Sales of new products fell short of expectations.TF Securities-I Solid-state Dry Battery Industry 24w48 Zhou Du Research: Alkaline manganese gradually replaces carbon manganese, and downstream demand drives moderate growth of the industry-241211

There is no complete substitution relationship between primary battery and secondary battery, and primary battery has an advantage in the use of low-power electrical appliances. Chemical batteries can be divided into primary batteries and secondary batteries according to the nature of use. Primary batteries, also known as "primary batteries", lose their effectiveness after the active substances in the batteries are consumed, such as alkaline zinc-manganese batteries, carbon zinc-manganese batteries and primary lithium battery. Secondary batteries, also known as "batteries", can be used repeatedly by charging after the power is exhausted. There are commonly nickel-hydrogen batteries, lithium-ion batteries, lead-acid batteries, nickel-cadmium batteries and so on. Although the application fields of primary batteries and secondary batteries overlap to some extent, there are still clear boundaries in the main use scenarios, and there is no complete substitution relationship. In recent years, the trend of household consumer appliances has gradually developed towards small and medium power consumption, and primary batteries still dominate in these scenarios.The competition pattern of zinc-manganese battery is mature and stable,

The alkalization rate of zinc-manganese batteries in China is increasing year by year, and there is still much room for improvement compared with developed countries. Carbon zinc-manganese battery has low production cost, but small capacity, large internal resistance and low stability. Alkaline battery is developed on the basis of carbon zinc-manganese battery, which has the advantages of large capacity, good stability, long storage time and good low-current discharge performance, and is especially suitable for environments that need low-current discharge for a long time. Under the same model, the capacity of alkaline Zn-Mn battery is 5-7 times that of carbon Zn-Mn battery, and it is the future development trend that alkaline Zn-Mn battery replaces carbon Zn-Mn battery. At present, various departments in China have issued various industrial policies to support the sustainable development of alkaline zinc-manganese battery industry in China, and alkaline batteries are exempted from 4% consumption tax. With the upgrading of consumption, the alkalization rate of zinc-manganese batteries in China has increased year by year, and it is about 60% at present, which has a great room for improvement compared with the 80% alkalization rate in developed countries.Risk warning: the prosperity of the real estate market has declined; Risk of exchange rate fluctuation; Risk of raw material price fluctuation; Sales of new products fell short of expectations.The downstream demand potential of zinc-manganese battery is great in the future, and it will grow moderately in the future. According to the data of Zhiyanzhan Industrial Research Institute, the dry battery market in China increased from 45.68 billion yuan in 2018 to 60.01 billion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 7.1%, maintaining a steady growth trend. With the moderate growth of the downstream electric toy market of zinc-manganese batteries, the iteration of household appliances renewal and the increase of household medical equipment brought about by aging, the future demand of zinc-manganese batteries will be stable or will increase moderately.